Ladder predictor
The current ladder, then where the model thinks every team will finish. The top two go straight to the semi-finals; 3rd to 6th play in for the other two spots.
Projected final ladder
Early-season odds are rough. Only 29 of 165 regular-season games have been played, so each team's rating rests on a handful of games plus a fading carry-over from last season. The model doesn't know about roster changes, imports or injuries. Expect these percentages to move a lot over the next few weeks.
The remaining 136 games and the finals simulated 10,000 times. Teams are ordered by projected wins.
| Chance of finishing | Chance of reaching | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Team | Proj. record | 1st | Top 2 | Top 6 | Semi-final | Grand final | Champion | Finish position |
| 1 | Sydney KingsSydney | 22-11 | 45% | 65% | 95% | 84% | 56% | 35% | 451913 |
| 2 | Perth WildcatsPerth | 19-14 | 16% | 33% | 83% | 60% | 29% | 13% | 1618151411 |
| 3 | Tasmania JackJumpersTasmania | 18-15 | 10% | 24% | 77% | 50% | 22% | 8% | 10141413131110 |
| 4 | Melbourne UnitedMelbourne | 18-15 | 10% | 26% | 78% | 54% | 26% | 12% | 101515141311 |
| 5 | South East Melbourne PhoenixSE Melbourne | 17-16 | 7% | 18% | 70% | 46% | 23% | 12% | 111313131311 |
| 6 | New Zealand BreakersNZ Breakers | 17-16 | 7% | 18% | 71% | 45% | 21% | 10% | 111314131311 |
| 7 | Adelaide 36ersAdelaide | 16-17 | 3% | 10% | 60% | 33% | 14% | 6% | 101213141412 |
| 8 | Cairns TaipansCairns | 14-19 | 1% | 3% | 31% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1015192015 |
| 9 | Illawarra HawksIllawarra | 11-22 | <1% | 1% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 10162433 |
| 10 | Brisbane BulletsBrisbane | 11-22 | <1% | 1% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 10162333 |
12345678910 | |||||||||
Finish position: each square is a ladder position (1st on the left). Darker = more likely; numbers are the % chance (shown when 10% or more). The outlined square is the most likely finish. Lines mark the top-two and top-six cut-offs.
Current ladder
| # | Team | Played | W | L | Win % | For | Against | Diff | Rating rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tasmania JackJumpersTasmania | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 498 | 477 | 21 | #6 |
| 2 | Perth WildcatsPerth | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 466 | 462 | 4 | #3 |
| 3 | Cairns TaipansCairns | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 641 | 665 | -24 | #9 |
| 4 | Sydney KingsSydney | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 403 | 352 | 51 | #1 |
| 5 | New Zealand BreakersNZ Breakers | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 543 | 513 | 30 | #5 |
| 6 | Melbourne UnitedMelbourne | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 558 | 539 | 19 | #4 |
| 7 | Adelaide 36ersAdelaide | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 616 | 638 | -22 | #7 |
| 8 | Brisbane BulletsBrisbane | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 459 | 479 | -20 | #10 |
| 9 | South East Melbourne PhoenixSE Melbourne | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 552 | 553 | -1 | #2 |
| 10 | Illawarra HawksIllawarra | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 698 | 756 | -58 | #8 |
Ordered by wins, then points difference (the official tie-breakers can differ). Assumed for the simulation: the higher seed hosts single finals games and games 1, 3 and 5 of a series.